Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 2.809765 3.295863 3.835002 4.476472 5.218057 6.047588 7.044995
2025-10-26 1.985112 2.613350 3.387215 4.406771 5.710578 7.317574 9.443660
2025-11-02 1.444069 2.096980 2.975672 4.236167 5.987994 8.324960 11.665043
2025-11-09 1.074388 1.699573 2.608071 4.010191 6.101841 9.084510 13.631738
2025-11-16 0.854342 1.457260 2.394278 3.935228 6.378506 10.066753 16.006205
2025-11-23 0.700484 1.279143 2.234514 3.897420 6.680642 11.098221 18.561752
2025-11-30 0.619994 1.203042 2.218646 4.077030 7.338198 12.745204 22.267485
2025-12-07 0.531553 1.093112 2.122488 4.097390 7.720921 13.979123 25.434951
2025-12-14 0.455612 0.990199 2.018674 4.081896 8.028897 15.110320 28.546898
2025-12-21 0.396108 0.907189 1.936343 4.089292 8.371780 16.331931 31.946371
2025-12-28 0.378641 0.907852 2.016735 4.422342 9.371262 18.854293 37.993164
2026-01-04 0.342866 0.861315 1.992315 4.537596 9.954066 20.653869 42.870546
2026-01-11 0.311329 0.819826 1.975041 4.672214 10.609052 22.697158 48.512760
2026-01-18 0.275020 0.759840 1.907573 4.688779 11.022201 24.314977 53.512712
2026-01-25 0.233596 0.678137 1.775950 4.539210 11.053119 25.151437 57.010398
2026-02-01 0.194366 0.593224 1.621081 4.308771 10.867097 25.502162 59.518141
2026-02-08 0.168943 0.540278 1.535812 4.232370 11.024850 26.613387 63.789981
2026-02-15 0.148800 0.497824 1.469854 4.193239 11.264688 27.932112 68.663976
2026-02-22 0.140424 0.488786 1.491839 4.386158 12.102170 30.713593 77.164930
2026-03-01 0.126620 0.459605 1.452649 4.408154 12.507713 32.520666 83.577933
2026-03-08 0.113212 0.428547 1.402475 4.391621 12.810279 34.112290 89.644877
2026-03-15 0.102137 0.402720 1.363122 4.399569 13.179147 35.906753 96.392557
2026-03-22 0.101555 0.413733 1.438586 4.756325 14.551478 40.370044 110.212791